A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
